How to watch the Romanian election like a pro

Will Romania join the global swing to the hard right?
That’s the key question as voters head to the polls three times over the coming weeks to elect a new president and parliament, after a polarizing campaign pitched by mainstream parties as a choice between stability and extremism.
More than a dozen candidates are battling it out to become the southeast European country’s next president — with ascendant hard-right candidate George Simion of the far-right AUR party, currently polling second, being the one to watch ahead of the first vote on Sunday.
Whoever wins will represent Romania in Brussels and NATO.
Despite its colorful history of corruption scandals, Romania has long been considered a reliable NATO ally in Eastern Europe and a country that has largely played by EU rules in the region. That record sets it apart from other countries in the region such as Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria, which are continually sparking fears over rule of law and gravitation toward Russia.
That might now change. 
Simion has pledged to take a more assertive stance in Brussels and defend Romania’s national interest — even if it means eschewing EU law.
If elected, he would join a growing chorus of hard-right leaders in the bloc, further tilting the balance away from mainstream parties and centrist policymaking in the EU’s highest decision-making body. 
The AUR party chief has said he sees Trump, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish hard-right kingmaker Jarosław Kaczyński as role models.
At the same time, Romania’s relations with Ukraine and Moldova may also sour, with Simion currently banned from both countries. 
Ukrainian authorities said they had blocked Simion because of his “systematic anti-Ukrainian activities” that are contrary to Ukraine’s national interests and “encroach on its state sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to a document made public by the Romanian government in mid-November.
Simion said the ban is due to his pro-Romanian activities. He has advocated the return of territory that belongs to Ukraine but used to be part of Romania.
Meanwhile, a surge in support for his party would further cement a trend in which Europe — and the West — is lurching to the right.
A win for any other presidential candidate is expected to represent continuity for the country’s foreign policy.
Romanians will vote this Sunday in the first round of the country’s presidential election, where they will choose from 13 candidates.
The two candidates who receive the most votes on Sunday will move to the second round, scheduled for Dec. 8.
A parliamentary election will also take place on Dec. 1, which will decide which party or parties will lead Romania’s government for the next four years.
Romania’s political system is similar to that of France, where the president is the head of state, the commander-in-chief and represents the country abroad. 
The president names the prime minister, based on the results of the parliamentary elections. The prime minister leads the government and is in charge of the country’s budget.
Thirteen candidates hope to replace outgoing center-right incumbent Klaus Iohannis as he ends his second term after a decade in office.
Here are the top five, according to Romanian polls:
— Marcel Ciolacu, Romania’s current prime minister and leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD).
— George Simion, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians and a first-time member of the parliament.
— Elena Lasconi, the leader of the centrist liberal Save Romania Union, a former TV reporter and current mayor of a small town.  
— Mircea Geoană, a former NATO deputy secretary-general and a former PSD leader, running as an independent.
— Nicolae Ciucă, a retired general and former center-right prime minister, who leads the Romanian Senate.
The campaign has seen little real discussion of policy, despite the country’s slowing economic output and gaping public deficit.
Instead, the presidential candidates have focused on personal attacks, scandals and mud-slinging. Simion, for example, has faced accusations of meeting with Russian spies —something he’s denied — while Ciolacu is under fire for his expensive luxury plane trips. 
On paper, all the presidential candidates are pro-EU, pro-NATO and back Ukraine over Russia, following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Kyiv. 
Still, Simion has vowed to suspend military aid to Ukraine if elected, and back a peace deal brokered by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, even if that means Kyiv making territorial concessions.
Other presidential candidates have also conceded that Ukraine cannot obtain peace without giving up some land to Russia.
Whether or not Simion makes it into the second round, his AUR party is on track to do well in the Dec. 1 parliamentary elections — which will make it difficult for any coalition to exclude it. 
While the hard-right leader has signaled his openness to working with other parties, Ciolacu’s Social Democrats will struggle to enter government with a party they have repeatedly branded as extremist without losing credibility.
Polls show Ciolacu in the lead ahead of the first round of the presidential election on Sunday despite his low approval ratings, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, with just over a quarter of voters backing him. Simion comes in second, on 19 percent, with Lasconi not far behind.
The parliamentary race more or less mirrors those dynamics, with the Social Democrats on 30 percent, AUR on 21 percent, Lasconi’s USR on 17 percent and the center-right Liberals on 14 percent. 
The far-right SOS Romania party, whose controversial leader Diana Șoșoacă sits in the European Parliament, is currently at 7 percent. 
The parties of the two candidates who win on Sunday will likely get a boost in the parliamentary polls. 
Still, experts warn that polls in Romania are not always reliable — meaning a major upset can’t be ruled out.
The first preliminary results, based on exit polls, will be announced when polls close in Romania at 9 p.m. local time (8 pm CET).